30 December 2023
When the plane carrying the Rapid Support Commander, Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Himmedti,” landed at Entebbe Airport in Uganda, there were only a few hours until his planned meeting with the Army Commander, Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan in Djibouti.
The meeting between Al-Burhan and Hemedti did not take place in Djibouti as was scheduled last Thursday, at a time when General Dagalo completed two tours to Uganda and Ethiopia within two days. The meeting is postponed until early January.
For over eight months, a war of dominance between Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has taken place in Sudan, triggering the highest level of displacement in the world. The war-affected Sudanese had high hopes an IGAD-brokered meeting between the two military leaders would help curb the violence.
First appearance
On 27 December, Hemedti appeared for the first time after months of war at the home of the Ugandan president, Yoweri Museveni, ending the widespread rumors on social media that he had died in a military battle.
The Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly responded on Wednesday evening, announcing the postponement of the meeting until next January due to Hemedti’s inability to arrive in Djibouti, according to a memorandum by the Djibouti foreign ministry.
“The Sudanese intelligence loyal to the army was surprised by the appearance of Hemedti in Uganda and quickly sent Al-Burhan and his crew a quick message to come to Djibouti. Indeed, a delegation was sent from Port Sudan airport and arrived at a hotel in Djibouti,” according to a source in IGAD who is not permitted to speak to the press.
The source, who preferred to withhold his name, added, “Burhan’s aides asked IGAD that the meeting be limited to Al-Burhan, Hemedti, and Djiboutian President Ismail Omar Guelleh but Himmedti refused and said that he would not participate in a meeting that does not include IGAD member states as witnesses any possible agreement.” President Guelleh managed to convince Burhan’s team to postpone the meeting to save the situation, the same source added.
“Hemedti’s tour achieved several points for him before meeting with Burhan, the most prominent of which was the attempt to legitimize his foreign credentials,” says International Relations researcher, Musa Fadl Al-Sayyid. A former official in the Prime Minister’s Office, Amjad Farid, agrees. “Hemedti’s diplomatic tour comes to increase support for his diplomatic position in contacting neighboring countries and to try to present himself as a partner capable of managing foreign relations and the interests of these countries, especially the countries that It plays a mediating role in the Sudan war,” Farid told Ayin. “What is notable is the absence of Hemedti’s political advisor – Youssef Ezzat, from all these meetings since the IGAD meeting, which was attended by the militia delegation, along with the UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs,” Farid added.
Fadl Al-Sayyed believes that Burhan only agreed to the Djibouti meeting since he thought Himmedti was physically unable to attend and had to backtrack after Himmeddti appeared in Uganda. “I believe that Al-Burhan is currently involved in approving this meeting and will not be able to withdraw from it, no matter how much pressure he is exposed to from the Islamists,” he added.
Raising Egypt’s fears
Adel Ibrahim, an expert in African affairs, believes that Hemedti’s visit to Ethiopia raised Egyptian concern about the arrival of these forces in areas located on the course of the Nile, Egypt’s water lifeline. “Hemedti’s visit to Ethiopia is a message to Egypt that it may control the areas of the Blue Nile course within Sudanese territory, and Egypt is the main diplomatic and technical supporter of the Sudanese army.”
Since mid-December, the Rapid Support Forces have taken control of Al-Jazeera State adjacent to the Blue Nile and launched attacks on areas within Sennar State, which is the second state after the Blue Nile State in the course of the Nile’s waters, Ibrahim added. If the RSF manages to control areas of the Nile, Ibrahim said, the army’s main regional ally may have to reconsider its support to Sudan’s national army.