Study reveals far higher mortality rate in Khartoum

29 November 2024

Prior assessments of Sudan’s mortality rates have varied from 15,000 to 19,000 deaths since the conflict began in mid-April last year. The Sudanese Federal Ministry of Health concluded that the conflict had claimed the lives of only 5,565 civilians.

A new study this month from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine paints a far more, although likely accurate, bleak estimate of civilian mortality rates in Sudan’s capital, Khartoum. 

In Khartoum State, between April 2023 and June 2024, the researchers estimate over 61,000 people died of all causes, a 50% increase in the pre-war death rate. “Khartoum tells us that the human price of this war  is very, very high—much higher than has been reported,” lead researcher and epidemologist, Maysoon Dahab, told Ayin. 

According to the study, violence in Khartoum State claimed over 26,000 lives over the same period, significantly more than the 20,178 intentional injury deaths reported by the data-research organisation Armed Conflict Location and Even Data (ACLED) for the entire country.

Hunger and disease, including illnesses that are easily treatable if medical facilities were available, were responsible for the majority of deaths (57%), the study revealed. While Khartoum’s access to medical treatment is severely curtailed by the conflict, Dr. Dahab fears areas outside of Khartoum may be much worse.

“We think that the mortality rates in other parts of the country will probably be worse than they are in Khartoum,” Dahab said. “Historically, Khartoum has had relatively better infrastructure and better access to healthcare.” 

The research reveals that since the war began, its impact on Sudanese lives has been significant, unrecorded, and largely preventable, with important regional contrasts. This has critical implications for impact mitigation efforts and emphasises the need for a scaled-up humanitarian response.